Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.392435 20.158070 23.156270 26.639842 30.567416 34.849745 39.863184
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 13.253899 17.123183 21.709560 27.507302 34.597556 42.940315 53.449572
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 10.138597 14.424137 19.916507 27.377727 37.141632 49.365813 65.691014
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 8.540857 13.197845 19.573736 28.767284 41.478013 58.198158 81.574265
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 7.118351 11.870259 18.779333 29.287279 44.534597 65.468593 95.903823
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.928347 10.620651 17.835699 29.357870 46.821338 71.728299 109.206753
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.001690 9.587295 17.016045 29.423566 48.986041 77.853637 122.635608
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.642030 9.416619 17.493867 31.489125 54.271051 88.819286 143.725553
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.204828 9.023092 17.528868 32.802109 58.439829 98.342878 163.226689
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.812334 8.636632 17.506805 33.980621 62.439569 107.814601 183.166714
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.310939 7.944785 16.837148 33.941258 64.375625 114.109104 198.481411
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.779920 7.089448 15.738837 32.991004 64.634051 117.653162 209.560450
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.322294 6.315026 14.712415 32.100760 64.995267 121.523557 221.658631
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.040577 5.883230 14.313294 32.361593 67.449294 129.096937 240.376219
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.740817 5.343023 13.606582 31.927225 68.566599 134.424027 255.612953
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.625323 5.241415 13.832019 33.400178 73.394366 146.542284 283.127189
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.459352 4.969216 13.631391 33.947712 76.449445 155.635677 305.801608
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.284904 4.632816 13.229994 34.011032 78.533409 163.059912 325.881778
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.133668 4.326833 12.853575 34.079158 80.614080 170.573169 346.472502
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.111417 4.410111 13.455179 36.420330 87.549826 187.585036 385.132599
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.048392 4.350048 13.680926 37.907681 92.788509 201.618134 418.922425
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.983211 4.268092 13.837245 39.242340 97.787754 215.434004 452.906725
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.870924 3.995884 13.440624 39.197603 99.784817 223.472016 476.374735